Blue Ocean Event (BOE) Consequences: Key Points to Know

- complete loss of Arctic Sea-Ice has global equivalent heating 0.71 W/m2 relative to 1979 if cloud fraction unchanged (by 2016, we’d already had 0.21 W/m2)
- if cloud fraction changed to 0% (clear sky) global equivalent heating is 3 times higher; if cloud coverage changed to 100% (complete coverage) global equivalent heating is 2 times lower
- since Arctic region is about 1/30 of globe surface area, 0.71 W/m2 globally is actually 21.3 W/m2 of heating concentrated in Arctic
- 0.71 W/m2 global heating equivalent would correspond to 1 Trillion tons of CO2 emissions (25 years of present day emissions) or 56.7 ppm
- I expect BOE by 2022 or so; risk higher each year
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Know